Prediction of Sergio Planella Hernandez vs Daniel Lara Salmeron at M15 Madrid 12-03-25

• How does second serve performance predict match outcomes? Sergio Planella Hernandez wins 45.05% of points on his second serve, while Daniel Lara Salmeron manages 25.78%, suggesting Hernandez has a stronger foundation in second serve situations.
• In return game statistics, Hernandez leads with 52.01% of opponent's second serves won compared to Salmeron's 48.11%. For first serve returns, Hernandez's 29.25% surpasses Salmeron's 24.07%, indicating Hernandez's superior return game.
• Under pressure, Hernandez saves 53.78% of breakpoints, more consistently than Salmeron's 42.53%, hinting at better resilience in tight situations.
• Overall match performance in the last year favors Hernandez, who has a 54.55% win rate over Salmeron's 43.24%, showing Hernandez's overall advantage.
• On clay, Hernandez excels with a 62% win rate, while Salmeron performs best on hard courts with the same win percentage, highlighting their surface preferences.
• Level of play and competition: Hernandez wins 57.14% at the Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments level, compared to Salmeron's 43.24%, showing a higher success rate at this competition tier for Hernandez.
• Despite playing against higher-ranked opponents (average rank 187.22), Salmeron shows less overall success compared to Hernandez, whose opponents average a rank of 259.73.
• In deciding sets, Salmeron has a significant advantage, winning 50% of them versus Hernandez's 17%, potentially crucial if the match extends to a third set.
• Break point conversion rates favor Hernandez at 38.18%, compared to Salmeron's 30.56%, which may give Hernandez the edge in high-stakes points.

Editorial Prediction (December 3, 2025, UTC):

Sergio Planella Hernandez exhibits overall stronger statistics in second serve performance and breakpoint scenarios, which are critical for securing match wins. His return game is also noticeably more effective, providing him with an opportunity to capitalize on Salmeron's serves.

Although Daniel Lara Salmeron has an edge in deciding sets, Sergio Planella Hernandez's superior general match performance, higher breakpoint conversion rate, and a better track record under pressure suggest a more favorable outcome for him.

Considering all factors, Sergio Planella Hernandez is likely to win the upcoming match based on his consistent strengths in high-impact aspects of the game.